Curse

|Readem| · Aug 02, 2009, 04:19 AM // 04:19

It makes perfect sense to me. Sure, the Author was a bit abrasive when attempting to make his point, but that doesn't mean he is wrong.

It could have been vastly simplified as such:

*If you want the title, be ready to pay the price. Just because people are bad at the numbers game, does not entitle you to take advantage of them. They agree because they a) simply don't know any better or b) they don't care. Either way you look at it, does not make it necessarily right.

*If you want good items, don't bother taking such a risk. Sell them for their market value, and your return will be exponentially greater (rather than if you chose to play the odds).

I myself have no interest in the Zaishen title, and thus consider myself rather unbiased. I hope this helps.

Shadowspawn X · Aug 02, 2009, 04:31 AM // 04:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kerwyn Nasilan

The service is not a lottery. You know EXACTLY what you get. It is the ZChest that is a lottery.

Agreed. The service is more like a lottery club where two parties agree to play the lottery(zchest) and split the loot. Where one party gets the drops and one party gets the title points.

Jinkies · Aug 02, 2009, 04:41 AM // 04:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowspawn X

Agreed. The service is more like a lottery club where two parties agree to play the lottery(zchest) and split the loot. Where one party gets the drops and one party gets the title points.

I understand the logic of why someone might do this service, what I don't understand is why for this price.

The break even point for both parties is 1 Client Key for every 4 Provider Keys. That's no mystery it's just math. The provider gets a constant flow of points, with 5 points free for every 3 keys he uses. The client breaks even, or occasionally wins, maybe occasionally loses if his luck is bad that day. That would be fair and maybe worth peoples time. As it is now, the client really cannot win. Do you guys not understand this? Demand more from your providers or don't use this service. Even 1 key client per 3 keys provider where the provider keeps 1 of the drops and the client gets 3 would be closer to the odds of winning in many casino games.

Prosthetic · Aug 02, 2009, 05:14 AM // 05:14

Look at it from the client's perspective:

Oh hey, I have these Z-keys but I don't care about the title at all, what can I do?

I can sell them to make money, or I can open the chest for drops.
Sure if I just want money, selling them is the best option, but I might have plenty of money already or just feel like seeing if I can get something good.

So I head over to GTB and see someone offering this service.
Hey, that means I can get 2 drops for each key instead of just 1.
Why wouldn't I take it?

Sure, if someone offered 2 or 3 of their keys for 1 of mine, I would go for that instead, but I am not losing anything here.

Assuming I have some idea about the drop rates, I am going to open the chest expecting to lose money compared to simply selling the keys. However, I am losing less then the alternative if I take this service.

You seem to have this idea that the client is losing here, where what is really happening is that I am gaining double the drops.

The only way this could be a scam is if the provider doesn't give up the drops. Or maybe if they mislead a client about drop rates so they expect an everlasting tonic after 20 keys. Which isn't going to last too long when they end up with 20 creme brulees...

Nesoruk · Aug 02, 2009, 05:14 AM // 05:14

If I refused to sell my keys and insisted on always opening the chest for drops BUT did not care about the title, I would only net 1 drop per key that I used. By using this service however I would be getting 2 drops per key that I used.

Keeping in mind that I refuse to sell my keys, where am I being scammed?

Def Ecrof · Aug 02, 2009, 05:46 AM // 05:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie

Guild wars is so incredibly goddamn serious business!

What he said, seriously it must be nice to have time to complain about something as dumb as this. Come on its just a game for frick sakes.

SpyderArachnid · Aug 02, 2009, 05:48 AM // 05:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie

Guild wars is so incredibly goddamn serious business!

I have to agree with this out of everything said in this thread.

It's a video game. Not life. You're not losing anything in your real life for what happened in Guild Wars, so don't fret on it. Just play the game and enjoy it for what it is.

DeFFik · Aug 02, 2009, 05:56 AM // 05:56

@OP
Yaaa... because z-keys are srs bsns.
1) It's only a game. My Z-keys, my problem. If I would like double drops I would go to Z-Service guy, if not, I wouldn't. Simple, don't try making other people happy with your point of view.
IMO you have taken the game too seriously...

2) I have earned 99% of my Z-keys by doing mAT (so technically I have scamed all those pvp'ers, go and make a thread about this one... yea, I'm so bad... oh noes!! But on the other side.. Who cares?)
So I don't care if I will exchange them for Ecto, money or random z-chest drops.
And you shouldn't care either about my z-keys nor my storage income.

It's virtual, so I can waste it or I can safe it like real money, but sometims I find it quite funny to waste some amounts of cash, even the virtual one (You know, we're having economical crysis in rl so wasting huge amounts of money in rl isn't the best idea for a common man)

My profits for using z-key services:
A) I'll have double drops.
B) I'm gambling (another virtual pleasure)
C) I'll make the other guy happy (I don't care if his profits are better than mine)

Other guy profits:
A) He's going to have more points than usual.
B) He is happy because of virtual z-keys
C) He's going to have a flashy /zrank to showoff (oh yea... great *yawn*)

I'm going to say it once more. Do not try to make other people happier in your way and stay away from my z-keys and the way how do I use them.

Archress Shayleigh · Aug 02, 2009, 06:29 AM // 06:29

I agree with you completely. Also, awesome wall of text

Bob Slydell · Aug 02, 2009, 06:34 AM // 06:34

Yes when it comes down to it, I think the people getting the service are in it for double drops.. and most likely DON'T care about the silly title...Therefore I don't really see it as a "scam".. That IS taking it a bit far.

Nian · Aug 02, 2009, 07:15 AM // 07:15

I don't understand the OP but imo the whole Zaishen rank is a scam to keep us dump players playing those same missions and quests over and over and over again. What are we gonna do tonight? Same thing we do every night, trying to take over Elona!

Well it seems to work so props to Anet.

Shasgaliel · Aug 02, 2009, 07:20 AM // 07:20

actually I agree with op that the exchange rate is bad. For me people with z-chest service are in the same category as those who spam WTB black dye 100g! in pre-searing. People do agree on this cause they do not know or do not care about the expected values. Here I can use exactly the same logic of arguments most of the thread is using:

- they can sell black dye for 1g to merchant so if they sell it for 100g they make 10000% profit!

- guy who bought sells it later for 7k and gets his profit too.

So it is all fine since both parties profit on the exchange... yes?

Regarding arguments that 7500 sample is not enough to have basic estimation of expected value of a z-key - I would like to see those equations some of you claimed were calculating.

Regarding it being it a scam, I actually do not know. I do not think profit difference between both parties is high enough for it to be considered a scam. I am unsure though.

Master Ketsu · Aug 02, 2009, 07:23 AM // 07:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasgaliel

actually I agree with op that the exchange rate is bad. For me people with z-chest service are in the same category as those who spam WTB black dye 100g! in pre-searing. People do agree on this cause they do not know or do not care about the expected values. Here I can use exactly the same logic of arguments most of the thread is using:

- they can sell black dye for 1g to merchant so if they sell it for 100g they make 10000% profit!

- guy who bought sells it later for 7k and gets his profit too.

So it is all fine since both parties profit on the exchange... yes?

Regarding arguments that 7500 sample is not enough to have basic estimation of expected value of a z-key - I would like to see those equations some of you claimed were calculating.

Regarding it being it a scam, I actually do not know. I do not think profit difference between both parties is high enough for it to be considered a scam. I am unsure though.

black dye has a trader and merch price.

Zkeys don't.

argument invalidated.

Zkeys are whatever people are willing to pay for them and by extension Z service is whatever rate people are willing to perform them for.

Shasgaliel · Aug 02, 2009, 07:30 AM // 07:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Master Ketsu

black dye has a trader and merch price.

Zkeys don't.

argument invalidated.

gg.

Expected value - check what it means. Drops from z-chest do have a merchant price as well you know.... Z-keys do have a market price as well - they can be bought and sold....
Their market price is being compared to the expected value of drops and then compared to what zservice offers. Same as with black dye but then you operate with fixed values instead of expected ones.

Narcissia · Aug 02, 2009, 07:31 AM // 07:31

i don't really think you can call it a scam. it's all luck. and i don't think a game of luck = scamming.
the OP got 2 everlastings from ~7500 zkeys (which seems like you're really really unlucky btw). if OP was doing this service, who's to say that one client wouldn't have gotten both of those everlastings after giving maybe 10 keys? i don't think that person would complain that this is a scam. sure, someone might get 2 creme brulees from giving 1 key, but i would think that they're aware of the risk and are fine with it and view it as they got 2 creme brulees from 1 key whereas they would've only gotten 1 had they opened it themselves.

Master Ketsu · Aug 02, 2009, 07:39 AM // 07:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasgaliel

Expected value - check what it means. Drops from z-chest do have a merchant price as well you know.... Z-keys do have a market price as well - they can be bought and sold....
Their market price is being compared to the expected value of drops and then compared to what zservice offers. Same as with black dye but then you operate with fixed values instead of expected ones.

You don't get it. None of what you are saying matters.

The people paying for the keys and performing the service DONT WANT the drops, they want the rank.

The people getting payed and providing the keys DONT WANT the rank, they want the drops.

Neither party can be ripping either off, because neither party wants what the other is getting.

It doesn't matter if the drops are worth 1k or 100k or if the service pay is 1k or 100g. Both players are getting what they want at a reduced rate.

What you really mean to argue is that Zchest drops do not meet what the community have agreed the price for Zkeys is. While that may be true, it has no effect on Z services since neither player is being deprived of something they are trying to get, and by extension cannot possibly be getting ripped off. The fact that Z chest drops generally do not pay for themselves would be true regardless of whether or not Z service is used.

What I have just explained is a very basic concept of trading based on desired item/demand. This has been in effect for thousands of years. If you still don't get it after reading this, please redirect yourself to the nearest wall and commence the traditional self punishment of cranial smacking.

CyberNigma · Aug 02, 2009, 08:30 AM // 08:30

wel I decided to check back in here. I have only used a few z-keys and out of one of them I got an everlasting tonic. Since I like the everlasting tonics I would say that's a win for me, big time. I either vendor everything else or keep it if I think it's pretty neat. I only vendor (or salvage) it so it doesn't take up space.

I think we can end the discussion though. I noticed the OP hasn't responded recently so I suspect it's his bedtime and probably won't be back in the thread till his chores are done tomorrow.

If I used the service, an everlasting dropped, and the service runner took the tonic then yeah I'd feel pretty scammed. People like titles that run the services and I don't mind helping them out for an extra z-key - though I didn't know this service existed till now - thanks for pointing it out. I'l have a certain number of z-keys regardless since I'm not farming the title - meaning if I use the service I'll have 2x keys to open as I won't farm 2x the keys if I decide not to use the service to make up for it. if it's say 100 z-keys within a certain time frame then 200 chest opens may be the better option since I want an everlasting tonic. If I get the tonic for the month then maybe I'll just sell the keys to other players. Maybe I'll be lazy and just use them anyway. I don't place as high a value on the virtual gold these days I suppose.

There's a correlation to the z-chest and mathemeticians gambling in Vegas. I don't know what many of your backgrounds are, but it's pretty common knowledge to many of us that conventions of mathematicians in Vegas are not big money makers for the casinos there, since many mathematicians realize what the odds are. However, that doesn't mean that you won't see someone that knows the odds gambling just for the sake of gambling. There's some fun in it, just like dice games or card games.

I now know about this service thanks to the OP. I don't care about thetitle and do not farm z-keys for the cash. I don't think I'll ever have enough z-keys to sell to make enough to outright buy everlasting tonics from players, so I suppose I'll just continue to waste them at the chest. I got one tonic so it's already been worth it for me. Now that I know about the service, maybe I'll spend a few extra minutes to find someone that's willing to double my fun. Maybe my negotiating skills will get 2 extra keys instead of one. It really comes down to that - what you negotiate. If not, then oh well.

zwei2stein · Aug 02, 2009, 09:05 AM // 09:05

You know, after getting rank high enough to /zrank emote work and statue to appear in hom, this service looks pretty good for me:

2 items for one key, sign me in! I would do it.

OP has basic flawed argument for his "13" items because he counts worst case scenario and furthermore pointless because if someone is set on getting cremes, he will buy them directly for key at that 13 ratio.

But that is not the case. I do not want them either, f**k 10k point titles., they are are worthless as zrank points to me. Same goes for alcohol or other similar stuff. They are not gauge of efficiency to me.

What i sign for is chest that "drops anything and everything".

I would open it on my own, but i can get double the chance for free. Key value is not problem - I would use it anyway, but with service instead of getting pointless title points for title i will never max, i am getting seccond drop. seccond chance for anything and everything.

OP is seriously off because he assumes everyone to have same priorities, well, suprise dam suprise, not everyone does. You do not take money to grave they say, well you also do not take monopoly money to life, hell, you will not even take them to gw2. There is no point to amass them unless you work on some title. And if you do NOT work on some title, well, you can as well just spend them on random stuff. Or even not bother picking gold piles and drops anymore.

Not hard to understand: Gold Is Worthless.

Eduhard · Aug 02, 2009, 09:20 AM // 09:20

Oh man, you know Lockpicks are worth more than most "Locked Chest" drops. Scam then?

haha

Grj · Aug 02, 2009, 09:31 AM // 09:31

Do you honestly think that the people exchanging keys for more drops are seriously expecting some random person to hand over something like a low req enternal blabe or any other high value item?

Face it people only do stuff for their own benefit, not only do they get to advance the title track on the cheep they also get to choose weither they give you the item. Thats the only reason people offer this service..

Wow and these people are willingly going along with this?